Whew—that was quick. The star of tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, momentarily rising last month ahead of the first 2024 Republican debate, is already falling as former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley begins her ascent.
Haley still trails Ramaswamy in FiveThirtyEight’s national aggregate, where Donald Trump continues to dominate and she holds the fourth spot:
- Donald Trump: 53%
- Ron DeSantis: 15%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 7.7%
- Nikki Haley: 6.4%
- Mike Pence: 5%
But in post-debate polling conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley registered third, either just behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or neck and neck with him.
Here’s the latest Iowa survey, conducted Aug. 25 – 28 by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for the pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc.:
- Trump: 44%
- DeSantis: 18%
- Haley: 10%
- Ramaswamy: 7%
- Tim Scott: 7%
The findings were very similar to another post-debate Iowa poll, conducted by DeSantis pollster Public Opinion Strategies. Both surveys found Haley surging into third place following the debate—a narrative Trump world is pushing as the former South Carolina governor moves closer to DeSantis in the polls.
In New Hampshire, a poll conducted Aug. 26 – 31 by NMB Research for the Competitiveness Coalition and the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy had Haley tied for second with DeSantis.
- Trump: 47%
- DeSantis: 10%
- Haley: 10%
- Ramaswamy: 8%
- Chris Christie: 8%
Again, the findings were very similar to a post-debate New Hampshire poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for MAGA Inc.
But does Haley’s third-place positioning even matter, particularly if Trump remains firmly in command of the field? Yes, it could. If anyone is going to make a race of this with Trump, it has to be someone who’s a competent candidate—a competency gene DeSantis appears to be missing.
There are also generally two primaries playing out—one among Republican voters (most of whom are pro-Trump) and another among GOP donors (many of whom hope to defeat Trump). Anti-Trump donors will eventually have to coalesce around a single Trump alternative if anyone is going to be competitive with him. Haley, at this very early stage, may be starting to consolidate that donor support.
Indeed, new reporting from Politico suggests a swath of former DeSantis boosters are jumping ship and making a beeline toward Haley.
Of the 50 donors who gave at least $160,000 in the years leading up to [DeSantis’] 2022 reelection campaign, only 16 — less than a third — provided funds to the super PAC Never Back Down, which can receive unlimited contributions, through the end of June.
And despite Trump’s current dominance of the voter primary, a surprise second-place showing in Iowa for Haley—whose candidacy initially seemed dead on arrival—could open the donor floodgates for her.
Just last week, veteran Democratic strategist Joe Trippi gave a great tutorial on his podcast, “That Trippi Show,” about the winning formula for Trump challengers coming out of Iowa.
“You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the rest of the field,” Trippi explained.
If Haley can do that, even at some 15% or 20%, she would be off to the races against Trump.
But whether she can capitalize on this mini-boomlet remains to be seen. Ramaswamy’s moment in the sun lasted all of several weeks. Looks like he flashed that victory sign a touch too early.
It’s the Ukraine Update episode! Kerry interviews Markos to talk about what is happening in Ukraine, what needs to be done, and why the fate of Ukraine is tied to democracy’s fate in 2024.
