Ukraine has taken Robotyne and crossed Russia’s first line of defense

After penetrating a major line of Russian defenses around the southern village of Robotyne, Ukrainian forces are now engaged in a fierce battle a few miles farther to the east as they seek to take the next step of a hard-fought counteroffensive, according to Ukrainian military commanders and Western military analysts.

The Ukrainian 46th Brigade, which is taking part in the fighting in the area, said that its assault units were attacking Russian positions near the village of Verbove, nine miles east of Robotyne.

Weeks of brutal fighting have resulted in small but significant advances that Ukrainian forces are trying to exploit. The move toward Verbove is notable because it shows that Ukraine feels it holds Robotyne securely enough to try to press forward.

This graphic gives a sense of the progress in this one area:

I pulled the last two weeks of Ukrainian gains in the Robotyne area as tracked by @Deepstate_UA.

Though the capture of Robotyne has garnered a lot of attention, Ukrainian forces have made progress to the east of town, reportedly crossing the Surovikin Line near Verbove. pic.twitter.com/i8VAeY6QT4

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 31, 2023

But as you can see in this map, there are still multiple layers of defenses beyond that:

The Armed Forces approached the second line of defense of the occupiers in the Robotyno area: the ISW explained what this means

The defense forces of Ukraine approached the second line of defense of the Russian invaders in the area of ​​the village of Robotyne, Pologiv… pic.twitter.com/7m7HsT70xS

— Lew Anno Suport #Ukraine 24/2-22 (@anno1540) August 25, 2023

Robotyne really isn’t significant except as a sign that Russia’s defenses aren’t foolproof. The fighting is now taking place in a town to the east called Verbove.

BREAKING:

The Ukrainian Army has reached the outskirts of Verbove pic.twitter.com/OHQElduRD6

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 30, 2023

Even the more cautious voices say Ukraine is making real progress:

Michael Horowitz, an analyst who is the head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a security and risk management consultancy, was more cautious.

“From the footage we’ve seen coming out of the fighting, it does seem that Ukrainian forces have at least reached one of the main lines of defenses built by Russia under General (Sergei) Surovikin,” he wrote in an email Thursday, referring to the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. He added that it was a “network of anti-tank ditches, mines and trenches.”

“I haven’t seen evidence that Ukrainian forces were able to breach this line so far, but they are certainly trying to punch through, and close enough that we may not yet know if they did,” he said. “They’ve been gaining momentum over the past two weeks, after relatively slow advances initially, so this is certainly an important moment.”

The ultimate goal is to reach Tokmak which is still about 15 miles away to the south.

After much progress in Robotyne, the #UkrainianArmy aims for Tokmak just 20km away.

The fortifications (red triangles) look formidable, but that’s not what worries them, as some are just “props”. They worry about the anti-tank and anti-personnel mines spread over a wide area. pic.twitter.com/HmyxJKMVak

— War&Peace (@realpeacenotwar) August 31, 2023

What’s the significance of Tokmak? It’s a major supply route and, potentially, a chance for Ukraine to show their counteroffensive is at least partially working.

A military expert outlined a plan for Ukraine to make a decisive strike at Russian forces following the apparent capture of a southern town.

Mike Martin, a veteran and visiting fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, said there is a path to a potential breakthrough for Ukrainian forces in a thread on X on Monday.

Here’s the thread:

The aim – above all else is to get to the Sea of Azov coastline so that the Russian forces are split into two.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

But progress has been very slow. Steady. But slow.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

As Martin sees it, Ukraine is not only up against the winter when fighting will slow to a crawl, it’s also up against the 2024 election when support for Ukraine could collapse if they don’t have some success to show the west, particularly the US.

The Ukrainians need to force the Russians to withdraw from the area shaded in blue.

This would be a significant operational victory that keeps the door open for a strategic victory later on.

So how do they do that? pic.twitter.com/sImmSD2NWW

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

And the Ukrainians achieved that not by fighting the Russians every inch of the way, but by cutting off their supply and forcing them to withdraw.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

Enter Tokmak:

They are:

– Tokmak (major railway junction) – black gold circle
– M14 highway (only highway in area for heavy trucks) – black line
– The three bridges/roads into Crimea where Russian supplies are staged (black circles)

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

Tokmak is already under range of massed artillery (152 or 155mm).

You don’t need to physically sit on something to stop it acting as a supply hub.

Artillery control, providing there are enough shells, will do just fine.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

This is what the Ukrainians did with the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson last year (weakened it and then destroyed it).

This seems to be the same play book.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

And that looks something like this – the Ukrainians need to advance to the blue line in at least one place with a salient wide enough that they can hold it.

This is approx 30km from the M14 which is about the range that the Ukrainians need to bring their 155mm howitzers to bear. pic.twitter.com/2vI5D8KJF8

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

There are a few other spots along the front line where they can achieve this.

But they all require a roughly 25 mile advance.

— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) August 28, 2023

Again, this isn’t a best case scenario but it is probably what needs to happen to show that Ukraine still has a fighting chance. The fact that they’ve crossed the Surovikin line is good news but they’ve got two more lines to go if they hope to effectively cut off Russian supply routes.